Operating Principle

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Small Samples Produce Patterns That Aren’t There

Small Samples Produce Patterns That Aren’t There

Small Samples Produce Patterns That Aren’t There

A trend built on a handful of data points is usually noise wearing the costume of a pattern.

A trend built on a handful of data points is usually noise wearing the costume of a pattern.

A trend built on a handful of data points is usually noise wearing the costume of a pattern.

Small samples generate extreme results by chance, which regress toward the mean with more data.

Small samples generate extreme results by chance, which regress toward the mean with more data.

Small samples generate extreme results by chance, which regress toward the mean with more data.

Small samples generate extreme results by chance, which regress toward the mean with more data.

Operating Question

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

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Why It Matters

Small samples generate extreme results by chance, which regress toward the mean with more data.

Supporting Evidence

Tversky and Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”.

Research Notes

Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.

Practical Actions

Ask for sample size; discount early extremes; wait for persistence before committing.