Operating Principle

2–4 min read

The Inside Story Feels True Because It’s Vivid, Not Likely

The Inside Story Feels True Because It’s Vivid, Not Likely

The Inside Story Feels True Because It’s Vivid, Not Likely

A compelling specific story routinely overrides more accurate general statistics.

A compelling specific story routinely overrides more accurate general statistics.

A compelling specific story routinely overrides more accurate general statistics.

Good decisions start with the base rate, then adjust for the particular case.

Good decisions start with the base rate, then adjust for the particular case.

Good decisions start with the base rate, then adjust for the particular case.

Good decisions start with the base rate, then adjust for the particular case.

Operating Question

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

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Why It Matters

Good decisions start with the base rate, then adjust for the particular case.

Supporting Evidence

Kahneman and Tversky on base-rate neglect; Nisbett and Ross, “Human Inference”.

Research Notes

Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.

Practical Actions

State the base rate; treat the story as an adjustment; ask what justifies a large adjustment.