Operating Principle

2–4 min read

Imagine the Failure Before It Happens

Imagine the Failure Before It Happens

Imagine the Failure Before It Happens

Imagining a decision has already failed surfaces risks that imagining success never will.

Imagining a decision has already failed surfaces risks that imagining success never will.

Imagining a decision has already failed surfaces risks that imagining success never will.

A premortem licenses criticism and surfaces risks standard planning misses.

A premortem licenses criticism and surfaces risks standard planning misses.

A premortem licenses criticism and surfaces risks standard planning misses.

A premortem licenses criticism and surfaces risks standard planning misses.

Operating Question

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

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Why It Matters

A premortem licenses criticism and surfaces risks standard planning misses.

Supporting Evidence

Gary Klein on premortems; Mitchell, Russo, and Pennington on prospective hindsight.

Research Notes

Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.

Practical Actions

Assume the plan failed; write reasons privately first; address the most-cited risks.