Every Plan Underestimates How Long Things Will Take

You will systematically underestimate how long this will take, no matter how carefully you plan it.

Reference-class forecasting beats inside-view optimism by anchoring timelines to comparable past projects.

Operating Question

Have you checked how long similar past projects took, or only estimated from this plan?

Why It Matters

Reference-class forecasting beats inside-view optimism by anchoring timelines to comparable past projects.

Supporting Evidence

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky on planning fallacy; Bent Flyvbjerg on overruns.

Research Notes

Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.

Practical Actions

Find comparable past projects; use their completion times; log estimates versus actuals.

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