Operating Principle

2–4 min read

You Find What You’re Looking For, Not What’s True

You Find What You’re Looking For, Not What’s True

You Find What You’re Looking For, Not What’s True

People notice evidence confirming what they already believe and overlook the rest.

People notice evidence confirming what they already believe and overlook the rest.

People notice evidence confirming what they already believe and overlook the rest.

Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.

Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.

Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.

Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.

Operating Question

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

What evidence, base rate, or structural constraint should change this decision?

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Why It Matters

Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.

Supporting Evidence

Raymond Nickerson on confirmation bias; Peter Wason experiments.

Research Notes

Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.

Practical Actions

List disconfirming evidence; assign an opposing case; treat confidence as a cue to search harder.