Operating Principle
2–4 min read
Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.
Operating Question
Why It Matters
Confirmation bias is strongest when a leader is most confident.
Supporting Evidence
Raymond Nickerson on confirmation bias; Peter Wason experiments.
Research Notes
Treat this as a disciplined decision heuristic and account for relevant context and limits.
Practical Actions
List disconfirming evidence; assign an opposing case; treat confidence as a cue to search harder.
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