Operating Principle

2–4 min read

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Conventional plans assume a predictable future. Discovery-driven planning identifies assumptions, ranks them by uncertainty and consequence, and tests the riskiest cheaply before scaling commitment.

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Operating Question

What is the riskiest untested assumption underneath your current plan, and what would it cost to test cheaply?

What is the riskiest untested assumption underneath your current plan, and what would it cost to test cheaply?

What is the riskiest untested assumption underneath your current plan, and what would it cost to test cheaply?

Why It Matters

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Supporting Evidence

Rita McGrath and Ian MacMillan, “Discovery-Driven Planning”.

Research Notes

Treat as an operating heuristic and assess the applicable context, limits, and counterarguments.

Practical Actions

List three risky assumptions; test the riskiest first; set and honor kill criteria.

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