Operating Principle

2–4 min read

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

Treat Strategy as a Falsifiable Hypothesis, Not a Plan

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

A strategy is a set of bets on assumptions, so test the riskiest assumptions cheaply before committing.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Conventional plans assume a predictable future. Discovery-driven planning identifies assumptions, ranks them by uncertainty and consequence, and tests the riskiest cheaply before scaling commitment.

Operating Question

What trade-off or assumption must be made explicit here?

What trade-off or assumption must be made explicit here?

What trade-off or assumption must be made explicit here?

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Why It Matters

Discovery-driven planning surfaces make-or-break assumptions and tests them first.

Supporting Evidence

Rita McGrath and Ian MacMillan, “Discovery-Driven Planning”.

Research Notes

Treat as an operating heuristic and assess the applicable context, limits, and counterarguments.

Practical Actions

List three risky assumptions; test the riskiest first; set and honor kill criteria.