Operating Principle

2–4 min read

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs. Because these diverge, organizations over-select confident people and under-select capable ones.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs. Because these diverge, organizations over-select confident people and under-select capable ones.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs. Because these diverge, organizations over-select confident people and under-select capable ones.

Confidence is visible but only weakly correlated with competence and calibration.

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Operating Question

What behavior, decision right, or attention pattern is this leadership system reinforcing?

What behavior, decision right, or attention pattern is this leadership system reinforcing?

What behavior, decision right, or attention pattern is this leadership system reinforcing?

Why It Matters

Confidence is visible but only weakly correlated with competence and calibration.

Supporting Evidence

Daniel Kahneman; Don Moore.

Research Notes

Treat the finding as an operating lens and calibrate it to team size, stakes, and organizational context.

Practical Actions

Ask for wrong decisions; probe correction; score calibration over presentation.

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