Operating Principle

2–4 min read

Regression to the Mean Gets Mistaken for a Successful Fix

Regression to the Mean Gets Mistaken for a Successful Fix

Regression to the Mean Gets Mistaken for a Successful Fix

Extreme results tend to improve on their own, making interventions applied after them look effective.

Extreme results tend to improve on their own, making interventions applied after them look effective.

Extreme results tend to improve on their own, making interventions applied after them look effective.

Operating Question

Are you about to credit a recent fix for an improvement that might have happened anyway?

Are you about to credit a recent fix for an improvement that might have happened anyway?

Are you about to credit a recent fix for an improvement that might have happened anyway?

Why It Matters

Supporting Evidence

Research Notes

Practical Actions

One useful email a month. Zero daily ‘quick updates.’ Your inbox has suffered enough.