Operating Principle

2–4 min read

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

We Select Leaders for Confidence, Then Suffer Overconfidence

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs.

Confidence and charisma predict who gets picked; competence and humility predict who performs.

Operating Question

What would change if this leadership pattern were treated as an operating design question rather than a personality trait?

What would change if this leadership pattern were treated as an operating design question rather than a personality trait?

What would change if this leadership pattern were treated as an operating design question rather than a personality trait?

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Why It Matters

Probing for calibration, track record, and demonstrated judgment under uncertainty counters a selection bias baked into how people choose leaders.

Supporting Evidence

Work associated with Daniel Kahneman and Don Moore.

Research Notes

Use this insight as an operating heuristic: consider context, consequences, and the limits of the underlying evidence.

Practical Actions

The traits that get people chosen to lead are only weakly related to the traits that make them lead well. Probing for calibration, track record, and demonstrated judgment under uncertainty counters a selection bias baked into how people choose leaders.